The destabilization of the socio-political situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is, in fact, of short duration.
The fact is that the likelihood of a military seizure of power in Tehran is more of a theory than a practice. For example, it is significant that the provinces of IRI, populated by ethnic Azeris and Kurds (more than 40% of the country’s population) did not support the protesters. However, the standard of living in ARI provinces inhabited by Azerbaijanis and Kurds is generally lower and social problems, including unemployment, are more acute. Given that the ESRC is a real military force in the IRI, the military coup attempt there will end in great casualties among ethnic minorities — Azerbaijanis and Kurds.
Official Tehran will continue to pursue a hybrid military-political strategy to keep the Shiite Crescent vital for the IRI over the past few years: Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Hezbollah amid efforts by the US and their allies to reduce political and economic sides in the Middle and Middle East.
To maintain strategic positions in the Syrian Arab Republic of the SAR, Iraq and Lebanon, the Iranian side will continue to rely on the ESRB, Al-Quds and Shiite military groups, which each spend about $ 7 billion annually. It should be noted that in the South African Republic and Iraq, Shiite military groups, including Hezbollah and Kataib Hezbollah, the ESRB and Al-Quds, have gained valuable combat experience using US and Russian modern weapons and combat equipment they have acquired.
Iranian military strategy
The IRI has several million refugees from Afghans and Pakistanis. Basically, it is the Afghan and Pakistani Hazaras, Shiites, among whom the IRGC is recruiting militants for war in the SAR. They form two brigades: Fatimiyun with Afghan Hazari and Zainabiyun with Pakistani respectively. Against this background, an official Tehran has set up a Liva al-Quds brigade from Palestinian refugees in the SAR. It should be noted that the majority of Shiite groups have entered the state security system of the SAR.
In Iraq, the official Tehran has created the Hashd al-Shaabi (People’s Mobilization Force / CHM /) of up to 120 thousands of soldiers who formed about 60 Shiite formations. Official Tehran is leading at least 44 of these 60 Shiite formations, while the rest are run by influential Iraqi Shiite theologian al-Sistani or affiliated with the radical Iraqi Shiite leader Muktad al-Sadr. After defeating ISIS in Iraq, part of the Shiite militias entered the Iraqi state security system.
In opposition to Israel, official Tehran is relying on the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah. That is why Hezbollah and the IRI’s military and political presence in the SAR (especially in the Golan Heights) pose the greatest danger to Israel. In addition, the official Tehran has deployed several military bases in the territory of the SAR, delivered its new drones, which, in addition to gathering intelligence, are able to destroy important objects in the rear of the enemy.
It can be assumed that the IDF will continue to periodically strike missiles at warehouses, infrastructure and facilities at Hezbollah and ESIR in the SAR. After all, with the help of Hezbollah and through the delivery of new weapons, equipment, missiles, the official Tehran is putting military pressure on Israel, which allows the Iranian side to strengthen its positions — both Hezbollah and IRI with all the ensuing consequences for Israel.
As for the confrontation between the IRI and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), it is observed in Yemen, the SAR, Lebanon and Iraq. It is obvious that the Iranian side will continue to supply missiles and other modern weapons and military equipment — as well as instructors from the Al-Quds and Hezbollah ranks — to the Hussite movement of Ansar Allah in Yemen, which will allow them to successfully fight the Shield of the Peninsula coalition army. »Led by CSR. After all, the official Tehran involved the CSA and the coalition in the bloody war in Yemen, which the Saudis cannot win in principle at this time.
The American answer
The Iranian side is unable to prevent the establishment of US military bases on a permanent basis in the SAR, Iraq and Yemen, which will be used against the IRI as part of the extrusion of official Tehran from the above countries. Therefore, it is unlikely that official Tehran — against the backdrop of high costs for conducting a hybrid military-political strategy — will be able to resuscitate a lucrative memorandum for the construction of the IRI-Iraq-SAR gas pipeline (signed in the June 3 Iran Bush) by 25. Pipeline with a design capacity of 2011 billion cubic meters. m was planned to be put into operation annually by the 40 year. However, IRI and Iraq official authorities have recently announced their intention to expand cooperation by signing a new agreement on the supply of Iranian natural gas to power plants located in southern Iraq. But the United States, Israel and the KSA will not allow the construction of the above-mentioned gas pipeline that meets the energy interests of IRI, Iraq, the Republic of South Africa, the Republic of Turkey (TR) and the EU.
Trump has made the statement that the Persian Gulf monarchies need to finance the maintenance of US forces in the United Arab Emirates, or independently to secure the security of the area currently under US control in the United Arab Emirates. In response, Riyadh called for the creation of Arab forces, which will have to enter the SAR to guarantee its security and counter-terrorism. The Arab coalition may include the KSA, the UAE, Jordan and Egypt. In total, the Arab coalition can expose groups beyond the pro-Iranian forces in the SAR. Only Qatar has not yet agreed to go on a confrontation with Tehran, and Oman has always refrained from direct anti-Iranian actions.
At the same time, the US does not intend to withdraw from the SAR, leaving control and presence in the country. Therefore, Washington appealed to the CSA, Qatar and the UAE to provide billions of US dollars for the reconstruction of the North-East and South Africa infrastructure.
It is obvious that the Arab coalition will coordinate its actions with Israel as well. it is designed to neutralize the IRI in the SAR, Iraq, Yemen, the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.
It can be assumed that Israel may join the Arab coalition against the IRI, since the US, the KSA and Israel have a common priority — neutralizing the IRI. Moreover, Egypt and Israel, as well as Jordan with Israel, have peace treaties.
Israel is also planning to sell the Iron Dome Air Defense System to the CSA. The Riyadh complex is needed to protect KSA cities from rocket attacks by Yemeni Hussite rebels. The deal for the sale of the Iron Dome air defense plant is in the process of completion. Riyadh has also shown interest in purchasing active anti-tank systems installed on Merkava tanks. Moreover, according to a senior official at the Israeli military organization iHLS («Israel’s National Security»), the Israeli government has started selling information to the KSF on nuclear weapons development. It should be noted that the iHLS organization is partially funded by US-based arms giant Raytheon, which produces weapons.
In other words, the above-mentioned US strategy will allow the following strategic tasks to be solved: the transfer of Syrian Kurds to the control of the Arabs and Israel; withdrawal of the TR from the coalition with the Russian Federation and IRI; strengthening Washington’s leadership role in both the SAR and the Middle East region. Against this background, Israel’s involvement in the Arab coalition will raise the profile of the Jewish state in the Muslim world. Israel will in fact become an ally of the Arabs. In addition, if the IRI does not suffer a military defeat, it will be greatly weakened from a military point of view. In doing so, the United States, Israel and the KSF will have Tehran lose its positions in the SAR, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and the Gaza Strip.
Political and economic reasons for the alliance between the KSF and Israel
The Israeli and KSA authorities are cooperating on a wide range of international issues, including military support for both countries’ national and regional interests amid a strong intention to neutralize the IRI in the Middle East region. It is about the exchange of intelligence information between Israel and the KSA, the military and political pressure of the two countries on the IRI in the SAR and Yemen, and the sale of Israeli military equipment of the KSA (including UAVs).
It should also be noted that there was an agreement between the Jewish state and the official Riyadh to provide the CSA airspace for the missile-bombardment of Israeli Air Force at the strategic facilities in Iranian territory. And the direction of missile strikes on IRI through the territory of the KSF is considered by the Israeli military among the main
Against the backdrop of the Iranian threat, Israel and the KSA have a common goal to overthrow the regime of the President of the SAR, Bashar al-Assad, the military and political defeat of the Hussites in Yemen, and the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah, allies of official Tehran.
By the way, the Jewish state and the official Riyadh are also in solidarity regarding the inadmissibility of strengthening the geostrategic positions of the common geopolitical opponent of Israel and the KSA — TR. After all, the official Ankara, against the backdrop of the US withdrawal from the SVPD, with all the resulting political and economic consequences for the IRI, refused to close its military-political and economic cooperation with the official Tehran.
The IRI missile program is considered to be a real threat to Israel’s national security, as Iran’s ballistic missiles equipped with nuclear warheads can do irreparable damage to the Jewish state. Although Israel today is the only Middle East country with nuclear weapons, although the official authorities of Israel do not recognize it. It is clear that the presence of nuclear missiles at the IRI will break this balance, and will bring official Tehran into the regional leaders of the Middle East with all the ensuing geopolitical consequences.
In other words, the Israeli-CSR alliance was formed to wage war against the IRI.
After all, against the background of the current military and political situation in the SAR, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon, during the Shia-Sunni geopolitical confrontation, the KSF is defeated. And Israel, considered the enemy of the Shi’ite IRI, is perceived by the KSA as a natural ally in the fight against the IRI. Moreover, official Washington is an ally and partner of Israel, pursuing a tough anti-Iran policy and calling for a forceful scenario against the IRI.
Therefore, the official Riyadh (against the background of the creation of two Shiite crescents, the first of which goes from the IRI through Iraq and the SAR to Lebanon, and the second through the Persian Gulf, Bahrain and Yemen to the Red Sea) has de facto refused the support of the current leadership Palestine. This was done in exchange for the US and Israel supporting the CSA’s actions against the IRI, Hezbollah and the Hussites. It is natural that the official Riyadh did not condemn the actions of the United States and Israel against the background of the transfer of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to western Jerusalem.
In addition, the KSA is currently facing serious economic difficulties and therefore needs loans from the IMF and from the WB. And without the official recognition of Israel, the KSA will not receive loans, as this is one of the conditions for their approval by the IMF and the IBRD.
Consequences of cooperation between Israel and the KSA against IRI
During the recent massive rocket bombing, the Israeli Air Force almost completely destroyed the Iranian infrastructure in the SAR. It is clear that Israel will not tolerate any Iranian military-political presence in the SAR. Israel seeks to prevent the establishment of IRIs and Hezbollah in the SAR, especially in areas of the Syrian-Israeli border near the Golan Heights. While Israel limited its SAR strikes without affecting the IRI and Hezbollah mine launchers in Lebanon.
However, under the aforementioned Israeli-Saudi agreement, the Jewish state’s air force was granted the right to temporarily base itself on the CSA air bases. The Israeli Air Force’s military transport aircraft have already been spotted at the KSA for unloading ammunition, which in the event of war with the IRI is more convenient to have here. In addition, Israel is interested in acquiring CSAs of American cruise missiles and air bombs for both countries. This is the main point of ordering the Ministry of Defense of the KSA at a cost of 7 billion. In the nomenclature of US supplies, more than 90% consisted of ammunition for American-made fighter-bombers, armed with the Air Force and Israel, and the CSA.
It is symbolic that the Israeli Knesset has already endorsed a bill from the Jewish state government that allows the country’s prime minister to launch a war with the approval of the defense minister. At present, to start the war in «emergency situations», Benjamin Netanyahu does not necessarily need to enlist the support of the entire cabinet, it will be enough to approve only the Israeli defense minister.
However, Israel and the KSA are unable to conduct a successful military operation against the IRI in order to destroy the IRI missile potential. The fact is that the Iranian strategic objects are scattered across different locations and are mostly underground. Obviously, the military-technical capabilities of the anti-Iranian coalition led by the United States are needed to inflict a military-political defeat on the IRI.
Therefore, to effectively counteract the IRI, it is planned to create a so-called. «Middle Eastern NATO», which will unite the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and Israel. The union has already received approval in Washington during President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May 2017. It is for the creation of the so-called. Middle East NATO has previously announced a new anti-Iran strategy by official Washington.
1. Official Tehran cannot strike directly at Israel through Hezbollah and Syrian government troops. The fact is that Hezbollah suffered tangible casualties in the Syrian civil war. Hezbollah also seeks to continue integration into the Lebanese political system. And a new war with Israel could jeopardize its core political base, including Lebanese Shiites, who fear another bloody war with Israel without the hope of success amid an anti-Iran coalition led by the United States, with Israeli involvement, the KSA and other Salafi countries The Persian Gulf.
2. Unlike official Tehran, official Damascus, in turn, does not question the legitimacy of the Jewish state, but opposes discrimination against Palestinian rights. The official authorities of the SAR are seeking to reach peace with Israel, not to be in a state of deliberately losing war with the Jewish state. After all, Israel is certainly supported by the United States, and a missile attack in the direction of Israel is equivalent to an attack on the United States. Obviously, the official Damascus is not interested in establishing Iranian military bases on a permanent basis in the territory of the SAR. After all, the process of creation by the Russian standards of the elite Tiger Division within the Syrian government army under the command of Major General Suhel Salman al-Hasan has been observed in the SAR, and 4 and 5 corps have been formed.
Israel will not launch operations with Hezbollah, but will not allow relocation of pro-Iranian Shiite forces from the SAR to Lebanon.
3. Israel and CSA led by US to neutralize IRI in SAR. The official Riyadh is interested, on the one hand, in the creation of a buffer zone between the KSA and, on the other, the blocking of Trans-Euphrates highways to supply pro-Iranian Shiite forces in the SAR and Lebanon.
4. With the accession of Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the throne of the KSA, the schedule of the opposing forces in the Middle East region will change. Mohammed bin Salman will form a coalition with Israel to fight US-backed IRIs. While the Israeli authorities are seeking to use the presidency of D. Trump to support a forceful solution to the Iranian issue.
Rauf Rajabov, orientalist, Head of Analytical Center 3RD VIEW, Baku, Azerbaijan